Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-30 12.392934 15.180076 18.286549 21.982596 26.236359 30.954697 36.559291
2025-12-07 8.143702 11.615732 15.931640 21.589579 28.702957 37.239031 48.136356
2025-12-14 6.029184 9.732712 14.749292 21.820930 31.291754 43.287864 59.352329
2025-12-21 4.285128 7.811861 12.997204 20.808819 31.870714 46.545100 66.995020
2025-12-28 3.454418 6.986445 12.545842 21.378680 34.440401 52.384993 78.142218
2026-01-04 2.767160 6.202965 11.979173 21.625106 36.463850 57.497069 88.481268
2026-01-11 2.268957 5.613157 11.592559 22.039353 38.682453 62.923403 99.435964
2026-01-18 1.906892 5.181455 11.381322 22.665029 41.207060 68.860924 111.318405
2026-01-25 1.487535 4.511504 10.623836 22.264788 42.049536 72.314505 119.730545
2026-02-01 1.225364 4.108154 10.283674 22.515515 43.906449 77.327902 130.570257
2026-02-08 0.951550 3.584882 9.609691 22.070408 44.544493 80.458830 138.688136
2026-02-15 0.718036 3.076031 8.863572 21.382693 44.681241 82.762910 145.591459
2026-02-22 0.602259 2.877438 8.794430 22.062313 47.371238 89.470454 159.864603
2026-03-01 0.448522 2.487821 8.213501 21.660947 48.124850 93.118335 169.608369
2026-03-08 0.355729 2.256835 7.961284 21.892438 50.024663 98.716046 182.608782
2026-03-15 0.241437 1.859411 7.181529 20.877703 49.488919 100.168372 189.000669
2026-03-22 0.197870 1.739372 7.123830 21.449028 52.013250 106.928648 204.200980
2026-03-29 0.154998 1.587610 6.937780 21.696083 53.905350 112.657513 217.882771
2026-04-05 0.123757 1.471557 6.830612 22.111388 56.149231 119.081010 232.903603
2026-04-12 0.101537 1.389942 6.812977 22.738652 58.854888 126.418814 249.661552
2026-04-19 0.070924 1.206884 6.406570 22.337396 59.394934 129.872626 259.961346
2026-04-26 0.054155 1.107346 6.262711 22.588760 61.314083 135.893378 274.789774
2026-05-03 0.036116 0.955995 5.877321 22.142522 61.693508 139.076527 284.817571